

£12 billion added to UK’s national interest bill following Middle East war
March 20, 2026
Birmingham Live
Speaking to Newspage, Dariusz Karpowicz, Director at Doncaster-based Albion Financial Advice, said he expects 10-year Gilts to break 5%. He added: "Gilts up from 4.23% to over 4.8% in three weeks. That is the bond market telling you the war in Iran is now a UK household problem. Every 0.1% rise adds around £2 billion a year to the national interest bill, so this move alone has wiped out most of the Treasury's breathing room. "For homeowners, Gilt yields set the floor for mortgage pricing. Higher yields, higher rates, bigger monthly payments. If energy costs keep climbing and inflation stays stubborn, 5% on the 10-year is next. Do not assume this settles quickly."
